tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039289615681819431.post8030079651661894670..comments2023-09-24T01:12:16.388-07:00Comments on Revista Circus: La Excepción AlemanaAlejandro Fioritohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00929891745158637259noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039289615681819431.post-54224116051417614682012-07-21T07:17:24.199-07:002012-07-21T07:17:24.199-07:00Dear Sergio Cesaratto,
the aim of the post was to...Dear Sergio Cesaratto,<br /><br />the aim of the post was to show that institutional circumstances (like the auction rules), which reflect the relations of power, contribute to determine the dynamics of the interest rate. This means that perhaps we could manage our spread (not the entire crisis, but just its apparent expression, useful only to focus the attention on public debt) without any need for austerity measures, like Germany does. The implementation of the ESM goes in this direction, too.<br /><br />Ramanan says that the Bundesbank "was just optimizing interest costs of the German government without breaking any rule". I agree, and I just tried to point out that Germany can do it while Greece and Italy, for example, couldn't. This institutional difference between members of the eurozone, which could explain different degrees of exposure to market turbolences, seems to be understimated by many well informed people, that abound in the internet.<br /><br />Regarding your personal observation: do you think that Germany, acting in this way, "admitted to be out of the market"? On the contrary, I think that German government is firmly saying that "the market" is not allowed to drive up, above certain limits, the interest rate on the government bonds of the country. In other words, government is governing.<br /><br />Here some theoretical references that allowed me to conceive the interest rate as an institutional phenomenon, without any need to develop a conspirancy theory:<br /><br />“Il saggio medio dell’interesse predominante in un paese [...] non può assolutamente essere determinato da alcuna legge. Non esiste così un saggio naturale dell’interesse, nel senso in cui gli economisti parlano di un saggio naturale del profitto e di un saggio naturale del salario.”<br />...<br />"Non esiste assolutamente ragione alcuna perché le condizioni<br />medie della concorrenza, l’equilibrio fra chi dà a prestito e chi prende a prestito,<br />debbano dare a chi dà a prestito un saggio d’interesse del 3, 4, 5% ecc. sul suo capitale, oppure una determinata parte percentuale, il 20% o il 50% del profitto lordo. Quando, in questo caso, decide la concorrenza in quanto tale, la<br />determinazione in sé e per sé è accidentale, puramente empirica, e solo la pedanteria o la fantasia può voler trasformare questa casualità in qualche cosa di<br />necessario.”<br /><br />...ed infine, per capire cosa l'autore intenda per "determinazione accidentale, puramente empirica":<br /><br />“La consuetudine, la tradizione giuridica ecc. intervengono precisamente quanto la concorrenza stessa nella determinazione del saggio dell’interesse medio”<br /><br />Karl Marx, Il Capitale, Libro Terzo, V Sezione, Capitolo 22<br /><br />MDLManfredinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039289615681819431.post-53566196512150101312012-07-10T02:22:38.381-07:002012-07-10T02:22:38.381-07:00Cari amici, I have not the technical competencies ...Cari amici, I have not the technical competencies to disconfirm this post, but I am always sceptical of plot theories that abund in the internet. I was sceptical last november when the post was originally posted. I asked a couple of well informed people that seem to confirm my scepticism. Below you will find my letter to Ramanan and his reply. A similar letter was sent to a former top bank manager that gave a similar reply. I just add that Italy (or Spain) cannot adopt this strategy of using "dormient" funds to buy BTP or BONOS: you can do it once, with the effect of admitting you are out of the market, and next time?<br />Sergio<br /><br />Ramanan, do you remember last november or so there was a fuss about the<br />intervention of the Buba at a auction for Bunds, but then people realised<br />that it was a normal praxis for the German Treasury to "park" bunds<br />temporary at the Buba if the demand at the auction is not considered<br />satisfactory. Any memory and opinion about that?<br />S.<br /><br /><br />Ramanan: Yes of course. IMO there was nothing wrong Buba did. It was just optimizing interest costs of the German government without breaking any rule. <br /><br />I had two posts on it <br /><br />http://www.concertedaction.com/2011/11/23/todays-auction-fail/<br />http://www.concertedaction.com/2011/11/24/yesterdays-auction-fail/<br /><br /><br />Roughly the argument is the German government has a lot of funds at Buba, in commercial banks and also abroad, so it can refuse bids (and deficit spend by sale of existing assets). So it can reject bids as it is not in urgent need for cash. So as I show the document from Eurex, in no stage does Buba directly buy the government securities from the German government. <br />Ramanan<br /><br />Ti stavo rispondendo io dicendoti la stessa cosa (of Ramanan ndr). Ci avevo studiato al riguardo ed in pratica la Buba tiene solo "congelata" una parte dei titoli sul conto del Ministero delle Finanze per poi venderli successivamente sul mercato secondario. Comunque i meccanismi d'asta sono fra i più vari... ne avevo parlato in un commento credo sul blog di Alberto. Vediamo se lo trovo così te lo incollo qua sotto cosa dissi.<br /><br />Se vuole aggiungere altro divertimento, può dare un'occhiata ai collocamenti austriaci, che riservano un 15% dell'emissione ad asta non competitiva (OeKB-Auction-Procedure) oppure i "bond tap" Francesi, che consentono allo Stato di emmettere via via nel tempo i bond a parità di prezzo se il mercato ne richiede ancora.<br /><br />In generale un buon articolo che parla dei vari "stili" di collocamento degli Eurobond è questo http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/17/459761/a-guide-to-eurozone-bond-auction-styles/.<br />E anche le nostre emissioni non sono tutte così semplici e chiare, ci sono commercial paper anche in valute extra-euro, i 15-30 anni sono emessi in base alla domanda (i tap bond di cui sopra), eccetera. Per chi vuole cimentarsi queste sono le linee guida del management del debito pubblico italiano <br />http://www.dt.tesoro.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_en/debito_pubblico/presentazioni_studi_relazioni/Guidelines_for_public_debt_management_2012.pdfSergio Cesarattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12052155215811147561noreply@blogger.com