Abstract
Throughout the world, the reversion of fortune suffered by the Brazilian economy since reaching its zenith as recently as 2010 has confounded
shrewd commentators, seasoned analysts and market players alike. As 2015
unfolded, ominous projections (“An Economy on the Brink”, “Brazil’s
Economy Falters” “Worse May Be To Come”) were no less widespread than
expressions of bewilderment (“Whatever Happened to Brazil”, “Brazilian
Waxing and Waning”, “Brazil’s Scandalous Boom to Bust Story”), and, more
recently, of alarm (“Goldman Sachs Says Brazil Has Plunged Into ‘An
Outright Depression’”) concerning the fate of the South American BRIC
country.
Despite profuse official protestations to the contrary, however, Brazil’s afflictions turn out to be of its own making, as it so often proves to be the case. Looking at the set of clearly laid-out policy choices made by the Brazilian government – and the almost as clearly spelled-out political objectives underlying them – should provide enough explanatory evidence to sort out this cautionary tale for developing countries everywhere.
Despite profuse official protestations to the contrary, however, Brazil’s afflictions turn out to be of its own making, as it so often proves to be the case. Looking at the set of clearly laid-out policy choices made by the Brazilian government – and the almost as clearly spelled-out political objectives underlying them – should provide enough explanatory evidence to sort out this cautionary tale for developing countries everywhere.
Resumen
En
todo el mundo, el cambio de suerte sufrido por la economía
brasileña desde que alcanzó su cenit en fecha tan reciente como 2010 ha
confundido a comentaristas sagaces, analistas experimentados y agentes del
mercado por igual. Como
en 2015, las proyecciones ominosas desplegadas ("Una economía al borde
del abismo", "La economía tambaleante de Brasil" "Lo peor esta por venir") fueron
no menos generalizadas que las expresiones de desconcierto ("¿Qué pasó con
Brasil", "Crecimiento y decrecimiento del Brasil" "La escandalosa historia del auge a la quiebra del Brasil"), y, más recientemente,
de alarma ("Goldman Sachs dice que Brasil se ha hundido en 'una franca
depresión'") en relación con el destino del país BRIC sudamericano.A
pesar de las protestas oficiales profusas en sentido contrario, sin
embargo, las tribulaciones de Brasil resultan ser de su propia creación,
ya que por lo que a menudo resulta ser el caso. Mirando
el conjunto de opciones políticas claramente establecidas fueron hechos
por el gobierno de Brasil - y por lo menos los objetivos políticos subyacentes fueron claramente definidos- como para proporcionar
suficiente evidencia para resolver este cuento con moraleja para los
países en desarrollo de todo el mundo.
*UFRJ
**PUC-Rio
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